Gilmore MP Ann Sudmalis has vowed to keep working hard despite her seat being listed among those that could fall to cause a hung parliament at the looming federal election.
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Fairfax Media revealed last week Gilmore was one of 20 Liberal seats that could be lost to Labor in a uniform swing of up to 4 per cent, but Ms Sudmalis isn’t fazed.
“Gilmore is not an easy seat in any respect whatsoever, it’s one of those seats where you absolutely have to maximise the work that you do for people who live and work here,” Ms Sudmalis said.
“That’s what I have done since day one and I will continue to do it for as long as I’m the elected member.”
Gilmore is not an easy seat in any respect whatsoever.
- Ann Sudmalis
A uniform swing of 4 per cent (the Electoral Commission considers a seat marginal if held by less than 6 per cent) at the election would deliver Labor 17 seats, according to expert Malcolm Mackerras, the creator of the Mackerras pendulum.
Add to that three more seats now considered to be notionally Labor because of a redistribution of electoral boundaries in NSW, and Labor would increase its representation from 55 to 75 seats - exactly half of the 150 on offer in the lower house.
ABC election analyst Antony Green’s election calculator makes an almost identical prediction under a uniform swing of 4 per cent.
An increase in Labor’s two-party vote, from 46.5 per cent in the 2013 election to 50.5 per cent, would deliver 74 seats for the ALP, 71 for the Coalition, and five on the crossbench - and another hung parliament.
But swings are not uniform, and the marginal seats campaigns that each party runs will be crucial in saving, or winning government.
Mr Mackerras said the chances of a hung parliament were as high as one in five in a July 2 double dissolution election.
“I’d say there is one chance in 10 of a hung parliament in an October or November House of Reps, half-Senate election, and one chance in five in a double dissolution in July,” he said.
“At a double dissolution in July, Turnbull will be at more risk. I’d say Turnbull would win with a six-seat absolute majority in July, and a 12 to 14 seat majority in an October or November election.”
Mr Mackerras said the “sophomore surge” – a term used to describe MPs who are contesting their second election gaining an increase in their personal vote, even if their party suffers a swing away from them – would probably ensure the return of the Turnbull government.