The political circus that rolled into Gilmore last week put the seat firmly on the national radar. That’s not surprising, given the extraordinary nature of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s intervention, parachuting Warren Mundine into the electorate as candidate.
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Depending on who you talk to, it was either a very brave or foolish move.
For most local Liberals – certainly the 40 who voted against nine to endorse Grant Schultz as the candidate – it was a painful slap in the face. For Mr Schultz, it was a devastating blow. He’s quit the party in disgust and several members have followed. And, running as an independent, he’s likely to split the vote, making Mundine’s chances of electoral success remote.
Suddenly in the national spotlight, Gilmore’s voters must be wondering if all the attention their electorate is getting is too little, too late.
It was only in May last year, the seat began to get the attention it had craved for so long. This was when then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced Canberra would part fund the Nowra bridge replacement. With polling showing the incumbent Ann Sudmalis was in serious trouble, party bosses woke up to the fact losing the seat was a real possibility. The bridge announcement was an 11th hour attempt to turn things around.
It failed.
The current PM’s intervention – riding roughshod over the wishes of the local party – has many locals scratching their heads. Some are wondering if it has actually boosted Mr Schultz’s chances. People love locals and they love an underdog and, right now, the dumped candidate is garnering a lot of sympathy. Whether that sustains over the next few months depends on the type of campaigns Schultz and Mundine mount.
They’re coming very late to the race. Labor’s Fiona Phillips has been relentlessly campaigning for almost two years.
The PM’s flying visit to the electorate on Wednesday was long on bluster and rhetoric and short on detail. Mr Morrison justified his intervention with a nasty – and as far as we can tell untrue – imputation that Mr Schultz had tried to bully his way into the preselection. Directed at a person who had scrupulously adhered to the party’s own rules, it inflamed rather than calmed local anger.
This will make Mr Mundine’s job of winning hearts and minds in the party even harder. The captain’s pick certainly has his work cut out for him.
