The UK's top diplomat in Canberra has warned that all countries including Australia will have to "reassess and recalibrate" their stance on coal after the Glasgow climate summit.
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The Morrison government has flatly rejected UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's assertion that COP26 sounded the "death knell" for coal, insisting the resource will continue to be shipped from Australia's ports for decades to come.
The deal agreed to in Glasgow - including by Australia - called on countries to accelerate efforts to "phase down" unabated coal power and "phase out" inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels.
It marked the first time coal had been mentioned in a UN climate agreement, with advocates and Mr Johnson hailing the deal as the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel.
But pro-coal politicians such as Nationals senator Matt Canavan have framed the pact as a major win for the sector after the language in the final text was watered down significantly.
Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has this week insisted that Australian coal remained in high demand overseas, as he argued coal exports paid for schools, hospitals, police forces and the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
But in an interview with The Canberra Times, UK High Commissioner Vicki Treadell insisted that the pact signed at the UK-hosted summit made it "crystal clear" that coal was on the decline.
She acknowledged that the transition would take longer and be more challenging for developing countries, but argued there was now a "clear trajectory" for the future of coal.
"That is a statement of fact, and every nation is going to have to reassess and recalibrate," she said.
The Morrison government says it won't shut down coal or gas production as part of its plan to meet its net zero target, with its roadmap predicting fossil fuel exports would continue beyond 2050.
However it does expect global demand to drop off, forecasting the value of coal production to halve by mid century.
Coal exports were worth $16.3 billion in the September quarter, up 80 per cent on the same period last year, according to the latest government figures.
The Morrison government's contribution to the Glasgow climate summit was widely criticised, with one of Britain's top climate advisors labelling Australia a "great disappointment to the rest of the world" after it failed to sign pledges to cut methane and end coal, or lift its 2030 emissions target.
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But Ms Treadell refused to be critical of Australia, saying its delegation had played an important role in the talks.
Australia would be a "vital partner" during the global clean energy transition, she said, in particular as an exporter of critical minerals and renewables such as green hydrogen.
"The opportunities for a new horizon for Australia, as a net exporter of renewable commodities and energy, are huge," she said.
The federal government faced more condemnation after it signaled within hours of the Glasgow deal being struck that it would defy a request to lift its 2030 target ahead of next year's climate conference.
Ms Treadell refused to criticise Australia for seemingly walking away from the key agreement, but suggested that just because the government had backed in their existing targets didn't meant it couldn't lift them in the future.
"In one sense, your politicians are right, there is no change ... because there is no change at the moment," she said.
"But in a years' time, when the world reconvenes for COP27, there will be an expectation that we will all come up with a new position."
The next summit won't be held until after the next federal election, meaning Labor or the Coalition could be in charge of setting Australia's target.
Labor has yet to announce the 2030 or 2035 emission reduction target it will take to the election. Opposition leader Anthony Albanese on Wednesday rubbished a report which suggested he was leaning toward adopting a target of at least 40 per cent.
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