Could this, finally, be it for interest rate hikes?
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
After hopes were raised then dashed by the four-month rate pause that abruptly ended on Melbourne Cup day, bruised borrowers and pundits are understandably hesitant about daring to think that the central bank is done tightening monetary policy.
But one observation made by Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock in announcing the December rate pause gives grounds for optimism.
Buried in her remarks about the labour market, Ms Bullock let slip that "wages growth is not expected to increase much further".
The significance of this is that for some time now the central bank's concern has been that, because labour is a major expense in producing services, rising wages will feed into higher costs and prices, making them "sticky" and delaying the return of inflation to the 2 to 3 per cent target band.
But it sounds like Ms Bullock is more relaxed now about the wages outlook, helped along by evidence that demand for workers, though still strong, is easing.
The labour market has proven to be remarkably resilient this year. The unemployment rate has barely budget from around 50-year lows.
But the latest job ads data provide a hint that business hiring plans are being scaled back amid a broader slowdown in the economy.
The RBA appears to think that this loss of momentum will develop and the pressure on wages will moderate.
If this remains the case when it next meets on February 5, it may well decide it has done enough to bring inflation down while still preserving as many of the recent employment gains as possible.
Of course, there is plenty that could knock the economy off this course.
Conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere could escalate, the current surge global shipping delays and costs may become entrenched, China's economy could stagger or another pandemic may hit.
But, leaving these aside, the biggest wrinkle might prove to be if there is no improvement in the nation's poor productivity performance.
IN OTHER NEWS:
Ms Bullock's promising views on wages come with the important caveat that productivity needs to lift.
She has said the labour cost to produce a unit of goods or services is currently too high and not consistent with a sustainable decline in inflation.
Short of driving wages down again, the only way to fix this is the raise productivity.
There is plenty of hope that the adoption of artificial intelligence will achieve this.
If so, it better start happening soon.