The decision by NSW Minister for Education Rob Stokes to reject calls for a new government school in the Milton-Ulladulla region due to “insufficient demand” has left experts puzzled.
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At present, the region is serviced by three government schools - Milton Public School, Ulladulla High School and Ulladulla Public School - that have a combined total of approximately 2645 students.
In a letter obtained by the Milton Ulladulla Times Mr Stokes said enrolments will decline until the year 2031.
However, a growing list of subdivisions in Ulladulla, Milton, Narrawallee and Dolphin Point, combined with the Australia Bureau of Statistics and Shoalhaven City Council’s projected population growth figures and the increasing popularity of the area with young families has left many confused by these claims.
The Times has requested a copy of the department’s declining enrolment projections and was still awaiting this at the time of publication.
South Coast MP Shelley Hancock, who is fighting her own government for the school, said she didn’t believe “for a minute” enrolments were declining.
In 2016, the state government released its population and household projections document, which forecast the Shoalhaven would continue to grow, with more couples with children and single parents moving to the area.
It showed the number of children, aged zero to 19 years, would slowly increase, before it began receding.
The department’s statistics indicate the only population growth of any significance will be among people aged 65 and older, which is at loggerheads with market trends and in stark contrast to the projections from Shoalhaven City Council.
Council’s strategic planning manager Gordon Clark said Milton-Ulladulla is “absolutely” a growth-patch for young families, a general trend which is happening across the entire Shoalhaven.
“People leave in their late teens or early twenties for study, travel or whatever and are returning in their 30s or 40s,” he said.
“Particularly when they have had children, for more support or a more affordable housing opportunity.”
Buyer’s agent Matt Knight said while his baby-boomer clients were steady, he was seeing the market move towards young families and couples looking to start a family.
“I am getting more and more people in their 20s to 50s with kids, or couples who have been priced out of Sydney,” he said.
“Lots of people who have mobile work move here to have access to the beach and a big backyard.”
Mr Clark said infrastructure upgrades occurring to the north of the area have had a great flow-on effect for Milton-Ulladulla.
“It is getting a lot easier to get to Sydney from the Shoalhaven,” he said.
“It is an opportunity for more affordable housing here too and when you put all that together, I would be very surprised to a relatively large urban development centre like Milton-Ulladulla decline. That would be unusual.
“When you look at the research done for the Sea Change Task Force it flagged a lot of people from Canberra or Sydney, with holiday homes here, were already living or working part-time and it’s becoming more of an option for people to work from here more.
“There are definitely shifts happening that point towards more permanent occupation.”
“I think the roll out of the NBN, plus the improvements to the transport corridor between Sydney and the South Coast is increasing the number of digital business owners moving to the region,” Mr Knight added.
“The relatively affordable property prices, combined with the idyllic beach lifestyle is increasing more and more freelancers, digital workers and tech-savvy business owners to our area.”
Council’s projections, which incorporate data from the Australia Bureau of Statistics’ Census, estimate the population of the Shoalhaven will increase by almost 20 per cent, over the next 20 years.
Its figures show an increase to 123,168 people by 2038, compared with the state’s projection of 109,700 by 2036.
In fact, council’s prediction shows the proposed catchment area for a new secondary education facility will see an increase of close to 4000 people over the next 18 years.
The “Coastal Mid” section, bounded by Sussex Inlet Road in the north and Yatte Yattah in south, will see a population increase of 8.5 per cent, to 2563 people.
The population of “Milton, Mollymook, Mollymook Beach, Narrawallee and surrounds” area will rise by a staggering 30.3 per cent, to 8822 people.
“Ulladulla” will increase by 14.5 per cent to 7986 people.
The “Burrill Lake, Kings Point and Dolphin Point” area will increase 20.2 per cent, to 3622 people, while the “Coastal South” section, bounded by Croobyar Creek in the north and the Eurobodalla Shire in the south, will see an increase of 4.73 per cent to 7946 people.
According to council’s projections there are no areas of the Shoalhaven that will see a decline in population.
“I would be very surprised if the population in this area declines,” Mr Clark said.
“I would be interested to find out on what basis someone thinks that somewhere within the Milton-Ulladulla area that the population would decline.”
Mr Clark said while projections were an estimate, he was confident council’s were right.
“We believe ours provide as accurate a forecast as we can get,” he said.
“Ours are from the ground up so to speak.
“We look at areas of zoned land, what is being developed, what could be developed and development rates.
“Then we put that together with an assessment of things that could happen on the land, including both birth rates, death rates, in-migration and out-migration – the numbers.”
